Post-holiday surge expected: Stay away from others and self-quarantine if you traveled or gathered with non-household members over Thanksgiving
Millions of people traveled across the country and internationally over the Thanksgiving weekend. Millions gathered together with family and friends, and in many cases, the COVID 19 virus was there with them. We expect a very large increase in cases over the next few weeks locally, regionally and nationally due to these high-risk exposures. As community transmission increases, the threat to our vulnerable facilities (nursing homes, prisons, schools), our businesses, our economy, our health care system, and our loved ones increases as well. There have been over 13 million documented cases of COVID 19 in the United States. Even if asymptomatic, undetected cases brings the total to 50 million, over 85% of us remain susceptible to infection. Be smart about protecting yourselves in the coming weeks, this is a dangerous and unpredictable virus. Your life and the lives of your family and friends may depend on your behavior.
Nationally, the virus is severely challenging our health care systems in many urban and rural areas. In Virginia, the 7-day moving average of cases by date reported is at 2,400. For reference, it was 2,243 a week ago. The 7-day average percent positivity of tests is currently 7.5%. Community transmission extent in the Central, Far and Near Southwest regions are substantial (high) and increasing. Community transmission extent has moved to high everywhere in the Commonwealth except the Eastern region, which remains moderate and increasing. The moving 7-day average of people hospitalized for COVID 19 is up to 1587. We still have good hospital and ICU capability across the state at this time. From a community transmission perspective, all counties across the state are at highest or higher risk as defined by the CDC.
In Three Rivers, we had a brisk rise in new cases last week, from 171 to 267, our highest week yet. According to the CDC K-12 School Metrics, King William, King and Queen, Middlesex and Mathews Counties currently are at higher risk levels from a case incidence perspective. All other counties are at highest risk. Our 14-day percent PCR positivity rates remain at lower levels, with all counties below 6%.
Vaccine update: What to expect in the coming weeks
Moderna and Pfizer have both announced effectiveness in the 95% range for their vaccines. Pfizer applied for a U.S. Food and Drug Administration Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) last week. Moderna announced early this morning that they intend to apply for an FDA EUA today. The following is a timeline of expected events:
- December 1, 2020: The CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) will hold an emergency meeting to develop and recommend guidelines for COVID 19 prioritization and deployment. Health care workers and nursing home residents will be in the first wave of recipients.
- December 10, 2020: The FDA’s Vaccines and Related Biologics Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) will meet to discuss EUA of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines in individuals 16 years of age and older.
- The VRBPAC will provide recommendations to the FDA’s Center for Biologic Evaluations and Research (CBPR), which will make a decision concerning both vaccine EUAs.
- Within 24 hours of approval, vaccine shipments to state authorities will ramp up.
- Distribution to local dispensing authorities, including health departments, hospitals, pharmacies, and nursing homes will occur as soon as possible following receipt of vaccine supplies.
- Vaccination of priority groups will begin as soon as possible after vaccine supplies are received at the local level.
The AstraZeneca and Pfizer vaccines are both under consideration for approval by the British Government. AstraZeneca is facing criticism for dosage mistakes made during their clinical trial, which led to unexpected results (a lower first dose was more effective). The Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine is cheaper to make and easier to distribute and store than the Moderna and Pfizer products, making it more suitable for worldwide use. Achieving herd immunity across the world is critical to allow a return to normal travel patterns, international trade, and economic health. It is important to remember that the vaccines may not prevent COVID 19 disease in all individuals. The vaccines will prevent disease in many, and will lessen the severity of disease in others.
We are in the final stages of planning for our COVID 19 vaccine campaign in Three Rivers. The Medical Reserve Corps (MRC), our volunteers, have been helping us immensely every step of the way through this pandemic. We will need additional volunteers during the vaccine campaign, which will be the single most important response effort during this contingency. If you are interested in becoming an MRC volunteer, or have family or friends that are interested, please visit www.vamrc.org to learn more. Prospective volunteers will need to create a profile, participate in orientation, complete a background investigation and participate in required training. If you have questions about the process, please reach out to Johanna Hardesty, Three Rivers Medical Reserve Corps Coordinator at 804-758-2381 x 14. We welcome your help and participation in the fight against COVID 19.
Testing: Free Three Rivers Health District COVID 19 testing continues
Our COVID 19 testing team remains very active across our jurisdictions. Upcoming testing events include:
- Monday, 11/30: Middlesex Health Department, 2pm-6pm (APPOINTMENT ONLY), 2780 General Puller Highway, Saluda, VA 23149
- Wednesday, 12/2: Richmond County Health Department, 10am-2pm (APPOINTMENT ONLY), 5591 Richmond Rd, Warsaw, VA 22572
- Monday, 12/7: Mathews Health Department, 10am-2pm (APPOINTMENT ONLY), 536 Church St, Mathews, VA 23109
- Wednesday, 12/9: Northumberland Health Department, 10am-2pm (APPOINTMENT ONLY), 6373 Northumberland Hwy Ste B, Heathsville, VA 22473
- Friday, 12/11: Richmond County Department of Emergency Services Station, 10am-1pm, 152 Community Park Drive, Warsaw, VA 22572
- Monday, 12/14: Colonial Beach High School, 10am-2pm (APPOINTMENT ONLY), 100 1st St, Colonial Beach, VA 22443
To make an appointment for testing, please call 804-815-4191 Monday through Friday between the hours of 9am – 4pm. We are offering 150 – 250 tests per event (ages two and up), there is no charge for the testing, and all events are open to the public. Our overall test positivity rate for these community events has been about 1.9%. The current testing schedule can change, please go to the Three Rivers Health Department website (https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/three-rivers/) or call 804-815-4191 for the latest updates to the testing events.
Reminder: Get your flu vaccine
It is more important than ever to get our flu vaccine, to reduce flu case rates, ease the burden on our health care system, and help lessen confusion with pandemic cases, which may look just like flu. It is possible to have flu and COVID 19 at the same time; getting your flu vaccine lessens your risk of becoming infected with flu virus, and may lessen the severity of flu disease if you do get sick.
Pandemic mitigation measures: Containment and executive order compliance activities go on
Our containment team is extremely busy; thus far we are able to continue case investigation and contact tracing fully. Our executive order compliance team continues to investigate every complaint – the majority of new cases occur due to small group, close exposure activities in unregulated venues.
K-12 School Status: Brisk community transmission is causing outbreaks in our schools
We continue to experience COVID 19 cases among school faculty, staff and students in multiple Three Rivers Health District jurisdictions. We have had outbreaks in the Northumberland School System and in the Richmond County school system. Social distancing, masking, and hygiene in our schools are imperative if we are to keep them open. We must also maintain early detection, case investigation and contact tracing in our schools. The schools themselves do not appear to be serving as major sources of disease spread; exposures outside the schools, mostly in private settings and events, appear to be the major challenge. Our goal is to keep our schools open. You can view the VDH K-12 COVID 19 outbreak dashboard at the following link: https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/outbreaks-in-school-settings/.
Now is not the time to relax precautions: We are almost ready to begin vaccinations
Remember, we can effectively prevent virus exposure and disease through social distance, masking, avoiding crowds, washing our hands, and practicing good sanitation methods. These simple methods work well. Our secondary line of defense is containment activity with extensive testing, case investigation and contact tracing, intended to control spread of active infections that we are unable to prevent. We encourage all of our constituents to take these simple protective measures. We are on the verge of access to effective vaccines; we can save many lives if we protect each other in the coming weeks and months.
Remember, if you are sick at all, even if your symptoms do not feel like COVID 19, stay at home, consult your health care provider, and do not hesitate to seek testing. The virus can masquerade as many other diseases, and can fool us all. We hear stories all the time of people who fell ill, thought they had a bad cold or allergies, continued going to work and socializing with others, and then tested positive for COVID 19. Many of our outbreaks are due to these actions. Again, difficulty breathing remains a sign of possible serious disease; if this develops, please seek help very quickly.